Six Months Into Iran War, Nearly Half of Global Oil Flows From Conflict Zones

An energy-market crisis

Six months into the Iran war, nearly half of global crude oil and refined product flows are now moving through active conflict zones. That shift has turned a regional security conflict into a systemic energy-supply problem, with major consequences for tanker operators, insurers, governments and import-dependent economies.

The exposure is concentrated in maritime chokepoints and nearby export infrastructure around the wider war-affected region. These are not marginal routes; they include some of the world’s most important transit lanes for crude, condensate and refined products, along with loading terminals, offshore platforms and transshipment hubs that could be disrupted by an escalation.

Chokepoints and vulnerable export routes

Even without a full supply cutoff, the war is reshaping how oil moves. Ships are adding distance, slowing down or avoiding the most exposed lanes. Key chokepoints and adjacent export terminals remain the main flashpoints because a temporary closure or attack would delay tankers, disrupt refinery logistics and force buyers to draw on inventories.

• Major maritime chokepoints in and near the conflict zone carrying crude and refined products
• Nearby export terminals, loading facilities and offshore infrastructure vulnerable to escalation
• Long-haul tanker routes facing rerouting and longer transit times
• Regional producers whose cargoes depend on safe passage through exposed waters

Prices, freight and insurance

Energy markets are pricing in risk, not a full cutoff. Crude benchmarks and product spreads have absorbed a war-risk premium, while tanker freight rates have risen on route diversions and tighter vessel availability. War-risk insurance costs have increased for ships calling at exposed ports, raising the cost of moving each barrel even when physical supply remains available.

For importers, the practical impact arrives through chartering desks and insurance underwriters before it shows up at the pump. A tanker owner now weighs route risk, crew safety and war-risk premiums before accepting a cargo, effectively creating an informal security surcharge on barrels delivered from or near the conflict zone.

The conflict is not only constraining supply on any given day; it is forcing markets to price the possibility of a sudden, disorderly loss of transit capacity through waters that carry a large share of world oil.

Analysts monitoring global supply and transit risks rely on official data from the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration and OPEC.

Producer exposure and market response

Major oil producers and exporters are directly affected, including Iran and other regional producers within the OPEC and OPEC+ framework. The conflict is altering production risk, export reliability and refining economics. Some cargoes are being delayed, rerouted or priced at wider differentials.

The rerouting of cargoes has also lengthened voyages, tightened prompt vessel supply and widened regional price spreads. Energy traders are using storage as a hedge, while some buyers are accelerating imports before any potential closure of transit routes.

Governments, shippers and energy buyers are responding through rerouting, stockpiling, strategic reserve arrangements and diplomatic pressure to keep flows moving. Naval protection for commercial shipping is under discussion in exposed areas, while buyers are building larger import buffers and diversifying suppliers to reduce dependence on any single vulnerable corridor.

Inflation and energy security

The broader risk is inflation and energy security in import-dependent economies. If disruptions persist or widen, higher freight and insurance costs will feed into delivered fuel prices, squeezing households, logistics and industrial activity. Central banks already dealing with sticky inflation would face another supply-side shock, while strategic reserves may become a more active policy tool.

Six months in, the oil market is no longer treating the Iran war as a purely regional event. The world’s energy system is now partially routed through a war zone, and every barrel that passes through it carries a higher risk premium.